Because of the desire to streamline manual membership renewals, all memberships renew on January 1 therefore inactive or unvalued memberships roll off the roster at the same time.  It also means that everyone's first year is a "short year". If you look at the chart, the blue line represents the non-renewals at the first of the year.  In the most recent past, we add members throughout the year and like roller coaster head up the hill to experience another drop off from the top. 

If we didn't have a January renewal and instead allowed members to renew on their anniversary date, one gets a better idea of our true membership trends.  The orange line assumes the same membership loss but not until the full value of their annual membership is completed.  We start 2023 11% stronger than in 2022 primarily because we added 36 memberships in 2022.  And 2023 is off to a good start with 8 additional memberships. Assuming similar recruiting success in 2023 as the last two years projects us at a 7% growth.  Memberships in this analysis are based on paid memberships.  Since most include a spouse/partner, our membership body will exceed 150 before the end of 2023.